Review Book - Dragon Strike, (context for South China Seas conflict?)

Fictional accounts of Future conflict can provide a useful geo political context for gaming near future conflict without having to put much thought into the wider back ground, the best example of this that springs to mind is Hacketts the third World War, which I used primarily as a scene setter for most of my Cold War Games.  As such I have started looking for something similar for a future war in the Pacific and will be reviewing the books I have been reading, primarily from that perspective.

Written in 1997 and set in 2001 the book focuses more on the geo political than the military issues  of the conflict that is at the centre of the story. It is nevertheless an interesting read and provides useful context to one of the major regional flash points. 

At the time China's evolving military capabilities limited the scope of what could they could credibly achieve.  The concepts that are now starting to give them power A2AD, still need to be augmented to enable freedom of action in the face of potential US opposition. The dramatic restructuring seen since 2015 which has significantly changed the structure of the PLA and dramatically increased its ability to develop Joint Operational capability, expeditionary warfare, and levels of mechanisation had not arrived in 2001.  As such the action described may seem a little premature a setting in the 2030 - 2050 time frame would be more credible though predicting the technological and political evolution in those time frames are a lot more challenging.

The book written by Humphrey Hawksley and Simon Holberton two experienced journalists who have covered the region and china for the BBC and the Financial times respectively has a solid geo political base behind its story and as such provides excellent context for one of the potential major conflict flash points, the South China Sea. The novel specifically focuses on the possession of the Spratly Islands, associated energy reserves and protection of critical trade routes all precipitated by rising economic challenges in China.  The Novel jumps around a bit but illustrates how regional conflicts escalate and the complex interactions and interdependencies between nations and how these evolve in conflict situations.

The Political interaction between the participating nations sits at the heart of the novel rather than either the military action or the interplay between the main characters and as such makes it a challenging read in places.  Despite it's shortcomings as a pacy techno thriller in the Tom Callency mold it provides excellent context for future conflict around the South China Seas, and abely demonstrates how this could quickly escalate to a  Global problem. As we sit looking at a wold on the edge of recession and trade wars between the US and China the Geo Political context presented looks all to plausible.


Other Reviews:

Marine, Tom Clancy, 1997